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Looks like it’s official now. Both Toshiba and Sony have given up on a unified, next-generation format.

Get ready for the messiest format war since Beta vs. VHS

A few additional notes:

• Sony (Blu-ray) didn’t win the last war, even though they had the superior format.
• HD-DVDs are set to be released before Christmas with about 85 titles including Batman Begins.
• The studios are split. Time Warner (Warner Bros., New Line), Universal and Paramount support HD-DVD while Sony (Columbia Tristar, MGM), 20th Century Fox and Disney (Miramax) support the BD-DVD format. Dreamworks hasn’t decided (but is closely tied to Universal).
• HD-DVD is cheaper to make, because it’s very similar to current DVD technology. In fact, many HD-DVDs can be made with the standard definition DVD on the flip side.
• BD-DVDs don’t support dual-side.
• HD-DVD supports 15GB, 30GB or 45GB on up to three layers.
• BD-DVD supports 25GB or 50GB, but a 100GB quad-layer disc is in development.
• Both formats support MPEG-2, MPEG-4 AVC and VC-1 (based on Windows Media 9) for video compression.
• Playstation 3 will use the Blu-ray disc
• Rumours have circulated about HD-DVD coming in a future version of the Xbox 360, but nothing is confirmed yet, except that Microsoft supports HD-DVD as a format.
• Apple’s officially supporting Blu-ray, but their DVD burning software already supports creating HD-DVDs (even though burners are not on the market)

My predictions: BD-DVDs will emerge as a popular data format, and HD-DVDs take the Home Entertainment market.

Because the technologies are so different, we’re not likely to see readers and writers that can handle both formats, as we’ve seen with DVD “plus” and DVD “dash” media.

HD-DVDs have the best chance, because it comes down to early adoption. Within the last few years, everyone has replaced (or started to replace) his or her VHS collections with video DVDs. Asking us to replace them again so soon could backfire.

If the studios using HD-DVD offer the standard-definition, DVD-compliant flip side discs, then consumers will have no reservation paying an extra $5-10 premium to have their DVDs come with a version of the movie that will be HD-compatible. Movies on Blu-ray discs can make no such offer, without pairing the BD-DVDs up with a traditional DVD disc in the same packaging.

If we find that Batman Begins (the flagship product for the launch) is released as a one-sided, HD-DVD only disc, then they will miss their chance at promoting the format’s one strength that really matters to the consumer: future-proofing their movie collections. Sony will then be able to leverage Blu-ray’s advantages (like the PS3) and take the market.